Amanda Lynch
"Largely in response to the potential for extremes, and the fact that climate information on regional scales is most appropriate for impact assessment and policy making, development of regional climate models has become an important focus."
Education
BSc. (Hons) 1986 Applied Mathematics Monash University PhD 1993 Meteorology University of Melbourne
Research Focus:
A striking aspect of anticipated global climate change in response to the increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the potential for rapid change (climate "surprises") and increased frequency of extreme events. This potential is supported by paleoclimatic reconstructions and climate models; observational evidence is becoming apparent in the higher latitudes. One theme that has clearly emerged from these studies is that climate is a complex agent of change.
In many studies of the impacts of climate, the goal is to project climatic, hydrological and ecological changes in the region of interest under the influence of these global climate variations.
In particular, the frequency and magnitude of extreme events are critical because they shift dynamic social, economic, and biological systems from one state to another. Such a goal is commonly achieved by integrating, under a projected new atmospheric composition, a complex climate system model of the globe. It is generally desirable to use the highest resolution and most sophisticated representations possible. Largely in response to the potential for extremes, and the fact that climate information on regional scales is most appropriate for impact assessment and policy making, development of regional climate models has become an important focus. Regional climate models generally adopt a resolution at least a factor of three higher than the global climate models that drive them, and can be reasonably said to improve upon global models in spatial and temporal variability, and especially tail behavior (extremes).
Reducing uncertainty in climate "prediction" (the generation of plausible scenarios) is but one aspect of this problem. Further attention must be brought to bear on research into the causes, patterns, and likelihood of these climate change with a specific view to help reduce vulnerabilities and increase our adaptive capabilities.
Current research
Federation Fellowship: Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes
It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.
Other ongoing projects:
Publications
Get from: http://www.arts.monash.edu.au/ges/research/regclim/pubs.html
Address
- Room No: 210 Building 28
- Telephone Number: +61 3 990 58291
- fax Number: +61 3 990 58282
- Amanda.Lynch@arts.monash.edu.au