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Neville Nicholls

Fields of interest:

Climate variability and prediction
Climate impacts (especially health impacts)
Monitoring changes in climate extremes

Research focus:

I lead a five-year ARC funded research program to improve the scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales. Within this program there are three projects, to:

Determine the cause of the tropical tropospheric biennial oscillation and the autumn predictability barrier.
Determine the causes of interannual and long-term variations in Australian tropical cyclone activity.
Determine the causes of climate-related trends and impacts (eg, drought) in Australia.

I also have a continuing involvement in epidemiological studies linking climate and health, and I collect literary quotes about the climate.

Other activities

I was a Lead Author of Chapter 9 (Understanding and attributing climate change") of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment, a Lead Author of the Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary for the IPCC Working Group 1 assessment, and a member of the writing team for the IPCC Synthesis Report (all published in 2007).

Previous employment/education/awards

1970-2005 Researcher at the Bureau of Meteorology, for the last 20 years as a group leader at the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre.
BSc, 1970, Monash University.
MSc (Meteorology), 1980, Melbourne University.
PhD (Meteorology), 1983, Melbourne University,
MBA, 1985, RMIT.
Priestley Medal, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 1987
Bureau of Meteorology Individual Excellence Award, 2005.
FitzRoy Prize, Royal Meteorological Society, 2005, "for distinguished work in applied meteorology".

Publications

Books (co-edited):

Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1991
Weather and climate extremes: Changes, variations and a perspective from the insurance industry, Kluwer, 1999
Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agriculture and natural ecosystems the Australian experience, Kluwer, 2000

Refereed journal papers and book chapters (since 2004)

Nicholls, N., 2004. The changing nature of Australian droughts, Climatic Change, 63, 323-336.
Page, C. M., N. Nicholls, N. Plummer, B. C. Trewin, M. J. Manton, L. Alexander, L. E. Chambers, Y. Choi, D. A. Collins, A. Gosai, P. Della-Marta, M. R. Haylock, K. Inape, V. Laurent, L. Maitrepierre, E. E. P. Makmur, H. Nakamigawa, N. Ouprasitwong, S. McGree, J. Pahalad, M. J. Salinger, L. Tibig, T. D. Tran, K. Vediapan and P. Zhai, 2004. Data rescue in the South-east Asia and South Pacific region: Challenges and Opportunities, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1483-1489.
Hope, P., Nicholls, N., and McGregor, J., 2004. Possible climate effects of permanent inland water in Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 53, 251-262.
Wenbiao Hu, Nicholls, N., Lindsay, M., Dale, P., McMichael, T., Mackenzie, J., and Shilu Tong, 2004. Development of a predictive model for Ross River virus disease using environmental data. American J. Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, 71, 129-137.
Nicholls, N., Della-Marta, P., & Collins, D., 2004. 20th century changes in temperature and rainfall in New South Wales, Aust. Met. Mag.,53, 263-268.
Nicholls, N., 2005. Climate and culture connections in Australia, Aust. Meteorological Magazine, 54, 309-319.
Nicholls, N., 2005. Climatic outlooks: from revolutionary science to orthodoxy. Chapter 2 in A change in the weather: Climate and culture in Australia, T. Sherratt, T. Griffiths & L. Robin (eds.), National Museum of Australia, Canberra, 216 pp.
Nicholls, N., 2005. Climate variability, climate change, and the Australian snow season. Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 54, 177-185.
Nicholls, N., Coughlan, M., & Monnik, K., 2005. The challenge of climate prediction in mitigating drought impacts. In: Drought and water crises; science, technology, and management issues, D. Wilhite (ed.), Taylor & Francis, 406 pp.
Nicholls, N., Baek, H.-J., Gosai, A., Chambers, L.E., Choi, Y. Collins, D., Della-Marta, P.M., Griffiths, G.M., Haylock, M.R., Lata, R., Maitrepierre, L., Manton, M.J., Nakamigawa, H., Ouprasitwong, N^j, Solofa, D. , Thuy, D.T., Tibig, L., Trewin, B., Vediapan, K., Zhai, P., 2005. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation and daily temperature extremes in east Asia and the west Pacific. Geophys. Res. Letts. 32, L16712, doi:10.1029/2005GL022621.
Li, F., Chambers, L., and Nicholls, N., 2005. Relationships between rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia and near-global patterns of sea surface temperature and mean sea level pressure variability. Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 54, 23-33.
Griffiths, G.M., Chambers, L.E., Haylock, M.R., Manton, M.J., Nicholls, N., Baek, H.-J., Choi, Y., Della-Marta, P., Gosai, A., Iga, N., Lata R., Laurent, V., Maitrepierre, L., Nakamigawa, H., Ouprasitwong, N., Solofa, D., Tahini, L., Thuy, D.T., Tibig, L., Trewin, B., Vediapan, K., Zhai, P., 2005. Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 1301-1330.
Tong, S., W.Hu, N.Nicholls, P.Dale, J.S.Mackenzie, J.Patz, and A.J.McMichael, 2005. Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus. Internal Medicine Journal, 35, 11.
Power, S., Sadler, B., and Nicholls, N., 2005. The influence of climate science on water management in Western Australia. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 839-844.
Nicholls, N., 2006. Detecting and attributing Australian climate change: a review. Aust. Meteorol. Mag.. 55, 199-211.
Nicholls, N., and Collins, D., 2006. Observed climate change in Australia over the past century. Energy & Environment, 17, 1-12.
Nicholls, N., Butler, C.D., and Hanigan, I., 2006. Interannual rainfall variations and suicide in New South Wales, Australia, 1964-2001. Int. J. Biometeorology, 50, 139-143.
Nicholls, N., Collins, D., Trewin, B., & Hope, P., 2006. Historical instrumental climate data for Australia – Quality and utility for palaeoclimatic studies. J Quaternary Studies, 21, doi:10.1002/jqs.1054.
Naish, S., Hu, W., Nicholls, N., Mackenzie, J. S., McMichael, A. J., Dale, P., and Tong, S., 2006. Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia. Environ Health Perspect 114, 678-683 (2006). doi:10.1289/ehp.8568 available via http://dx.doi.org/ [Online 15 December 2005]
Hope, P.K., Drosdowsky, W., and Nicholls, N., 2006. Shifts in synoptic systems influencing southwest Western Australia. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0115-y.
Nicholls, N., and Alexander, L., 2007. Has the climate become more variable or extreme? Progress 1992-2006. Progress in Physical Geography, 31, 77-87.
Nicholls, N., and Lucas, C., 2007. Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: Relationships with climate and predictability. Int. J. Wildland Fire. 16, 540-546.
Nicholls, N., Skinner, C., Loughnan, M., and Tapper, N., 2007. A simple heat alert system for Melbourne, Australia. Int J. Biometeorology DOI:10.1007/s00484-007-0132-5.
Alexander, L., Hope, P., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Lynch, A., and Nicholls, N., 2007. Trends in Australia’s climate means and extremes: a global context. Aust. Met Mag., 56, 1-18.
Hegerl, G. C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. P. Gillett, Y. Luo, J. A. Marengo Orsini, N. Nicholls, J. E. Penner and P. A. Stott, 2007: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R. B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N. L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, J. M. Gregory, G. C. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B. J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T. F. Stocker, P. Whetton, R. A. Wood and D. Wratt, 2007: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Power, S., and Nicholls, N., 2007. Temperature variability in a changing climate. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56, 105-110.
Sarah Burns, Nigel Tapper, David Packham, Ben Orlove, and Neville Nicholls, 2008. The relationship between fire activity, rainfall and ENSO indices in northern Australia International Journal of Wildland Fire (in press).
Walsh, K., D. Karoly and N. Nicholls, 2008: The detection and attribution of climate change effects on tropical cyclones. In: Hurricanes and Climate, Springer (in press).

Miscellaneous publications (since 2004)

Nicholls, N., 2004. "History", Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society, 17, 35-36.
Jones, D., Collins, D., Nicholls, N., Phan, J., and Della-Marta, P., 2004."A new tool for tracking Australia’s climate variability and change",Bulletin Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 17, 65-69.
Nicholls, N., 2004. Did metrication bias trends in Australian temperature?,Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society,17, 102-104.
Gifford, R. M., Farquahar, G. D., Roderick, M. L., and Nicholls, N., 2005. Workshop summary on pan evaporation: An example of the detection and attribution of climate change variables. In: Proceedings of Workshop, Australian Academy of Science, 22-23 November 2004, R. M. Gifford (ed.).
Nicholls, N., and Manton, M., 2005. APN Workshops on Daily Extremes across East Asia and the West Pacific. APN Newsletter, 11, October 2005, pp 4-5.
Nicholls, N., 2005. Review of Taken by Storm by Essex and McKitrick,Aust. J. Agric. & Resource Economics, 49, 362-364.
Hennessy, K., Lucas, C., Nicholls, N., Bathols, J., Suppiah, R., and Ricketts, J., 2006. Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia. CSIRO, 86pp.
Nicholls, N., 2006. Review of The Weather Makers by Tim Flannery,Historical Records of Australian Science, (in press).
Nicholls, N., Walsh, K., and Reeder, M., 2006. AMOS policy statement on climate change, Bull. Australian Meteorol. Oceanography Soc., September, 2006.
Nicholls, N., 2007. Detecting, understanding & attributing climate change. A background report on research priorities prepared for the Australian Greenhouse Office, Australian Greenhouse Office, February 2007, 26 pp.
Nicholls, N., 2007. Australian climate and weather extremes: past, present and future. A discussion paper prepared for the Australian Greenhouse Office. (in press)
PMSEIC Working Group on Climate Change in Australia, 2007. Climate change in Australia: regional impacts and adaptation; managing the risk for Australia. Report prepared for Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council, Canberra, June, 57 pp. http://www.dest.gov.au/sectors/science_innovation/publications_resources/profiles/climate_change_in_australia.htm
Nicholls, N., 2007. Climate: Sawyer predicted rate of warming in 1972. Nature, 448, 992.
"Facts of fate, not acts of faith", Neville Nicholls, The Australian, Higher Education Section, 25 April 2007.
"A warning we ignored 35 years ago", Neville Nicholls, The Age, 31 August 2007.
"Causes of past change", Bertrand Timbal and Neville Nicholls, Chapter 3 in Climate change in Australia, CSIRO, 2007, pp 148.

Address

Room No: 220, Building 28
Telephone Number: +61 3 990 20111
Neville.Nicholls@arts.monash.edu.au