Question Database: God and Religion
Pascal's Wager
| RAIN probability: R | NO RAIN probability: NR | |
| TAKE UMBRELLA | A | B |
| LEAVE UMBRELLA | C | D |
Suppose you have a decision matrix like this. All you know about the values are that:
(1) A > C
(2) B > D
If this is ALL you know, what should you decide to do?
A. You should take the umbrella.
B. You should not take the umbrella.
C. The two options are equally balanced.
D. There is not enough information to decide what to do.
Answer: A
Topic:
Pascal's wager, decision theory
Course Level:
First year, intro. to philosophy
Notes:
(1) A > C means that you prefer to have your umbrella if it rains.
(2) B > D means that you prefer to have your umbrella if it doesn’t rain.
It follows that you always prefer to take your umbrella. So that’s what you should do, no matter how likely it is to rain.
| GOD EXISTS probability: G | NO GOD probability: NG | |
| BELIEVE in GOD | A (INFINITE) | B |
| DON'T BELIEVE in GOD | C | D |
Suppose you thought that in this decision matrix, A was infinite. So:
(1) A > B
(2) A > C
(3) A > D
If this is ALL you know, what should you decide to believe?
A. You should believe in God.
B. You should not believe in God.
C. The two choices are equally balanced.
D. There is not enough information to decide.
Answer: D
Topic:
Pascal's wager, decision theory
Course Level:
First year, intro. to philosophy
Notes:
If G (the probability that God exists) is ZERO, then you are not forced to believe in God. Whether you should believe or not will depend on whether B > D. But if the probability that God exists is greater than zero, it seems like you should believe in God.
Pascal's argument
1. Rationality requires that you believe in God, or you that don’t believe in God.
2. Rationality requires that you assign positive infinite utility to believing in God, if God exists.
3. Rationality requires that you do not assign positive infinite utility to any of the other possibilities.
4. Rationality requires that you have a positive (non-zero), non-infinitesimal (1/infinity) probability that God exists.
5. Rationality requires you to maximise expected utility.
6. (Therefore) Rationality requires that you believe in God.
Is the argument valid?
A. Yes, the argument is valid.
B. No, the argument is invalid.
C. Not sure.
Answer: A
Topic:
Pascal's wager, decision theory
Course Level:
First year, intro. to philosophy
Notes:
Discussion question: are all the premises true?
A. Yes, all the premises are true.
B. No, at least one premise is false.